Ten years of analysis reveal patterns of paranormal activity and a potentially unprecedented crisis in witchcraft.

Abstract

Background: Despite millennia of documented accounts, empirical evidence supporting the existence of supernatural entities has remained elusive. This study introduces a novel application of healthcare data to investigate supernatural entities and establish quantitative evidence of their existence.

Methods: We analyzed ten years of healthcare data (2016–2025), examining indicators associated with five supernatural categories: Ghosts, vampires, werewolves, witches, and familiars (i.e., cats). Given Halloween's longstanding association with heightened supernatural activity, October was selected as the primary observation period. Activity during October was compared with average monthly activity across the remaining eleven months of each year to identify seasonal patterns and anomalies.

Results: All five supernatural categories had October increases over the majority of the 10 years with only 4 of 50 total category / year combinations being lower in October than other months. The largest decreases were a 68% decrease in October in witch-associated healthcare activity in 2021, followed by a 20% decrease in 2023. Further investigation identified concurrent global shortages of mustard seed, glass containers, and paraffin wax, all essential components of the traditional witchcraft toolkit.

Conclusion: The unexpected decline in witch-associated behavior in certain years correlated with global supply shortages of essential materials for witchcraft, suggesting that supernatural operations may be vulnerable to conventional economic disruptions, opening a new field of inquiry into the relationship between supernatural activity and global commodity markets.

1. Introduction

For millennia, the existence of supernatural entities has been a subject of considerable debate. As early as the third millennium BCE, ancient Mesopotamian texts documented beliefs in ghosts, demons, and supernatural forces. Subsequent civilizations recorded accounts of sorcery, apparitions, and other unexplained phenomena, culminating in the witch trials of early modern Europe and colonial America, including the notorious Salem trials of 1692. Yet despite more than 4,000 years of recorded accounts and investigation, systematic quantitative evidence of supernatural activity remains elusive.

One persistent observation, however, warrants scientific investigation: Reports of supernatural phenomena appear to increase in the lead-up to Halloween. If supernatural entities exist, and if their activity intensifies in October, it follows that measurable indicators of their presence should exhibit corresponding seasonal increases.

The American Academy of Professional Coders suggested that ICD-10 codes in healthcare data may provide an unexpected source of evidence (1). ICD-10 codes record encounters with the medical system in a structured manner. Thus, for example, the code “S11.95X” for “Open bite of unspecified part of neck, initial encounter” could indicate a person visiting the doctor for the first time after a vampire bite. The study sought to answer two primary questions using these codes in 10 years of healthcare data:

1. Is there measurable evidence of increased supernatural activity during October?

2. Are the observed patterns consistent across supernatural populations and over time?

The investigation ultimately produced an unexpected third question: What happened to the witches?

2. Materials and Methods

2.1 Data collection and classification

ICD-10 codes on a full US population cohort from January 2016 through December 2025 were assessed. Selected diagnostic codes were organized into five observational categories representing commonly reported supernatural entities or associated phenomena:

• Ghosts
• Vampires
• Werewolves
• Witches
• Familiars (i.e., cats)

2.2 Seasonal prevalence analysis

For each category and month/year, distinct individuals whose healthcare record suggested they encountered a supernatural entity were counted. We calculated the relative difference between October counts and average monthly counts across the remaining eleven months. Positive values indicate elevated October activity relative to the annual non-October baseline. Negative values indicate reduced October activity.

October was selected as the primary observation period based on the longstanding association between Halloween and supernatural phenomena. This association predates modern Halloween traditions, extending to the ancient Gaelic festival of Samhain, when the boundary between the living and the dead was believed to become more permeable.

This approach provides a consistent annual observation window, thus using longitudinal comparisons to establish evidence for supernatural activity, without requiring continuous surveillance of supernatural entities.

3. Results

3.1 Evidence of seasonal supernatural activity

Forty-six of 50 supernatural category / year combinations had October increases, with 14 having a >20% increase in October.

[Figure 1: Most Supernatural-Associated Code Categories Have Increased Activity in October vs Other Months]

Percentage difference between October activity and the average of the remaining eleven months by supernatural category.

Several findings warrant attention.

1. Ghosts demonstrated persistent seasonal activity: Ghost-associated codes had consistent recurring October activity, supporting the existence of a persistent population rather than isolated historical incidents.

2. Vampires exhibited recurring elevated activity with high variability: Although annual variation was observed in the amount of activity, the activity was greater than other months in 9 of 10 years, and not significantly different in the other year.

3. Werewolves demonstrated relative stability: Unlike other supernatural categories, werewolf-associated activity had less variability year-over-year, suggesing a more persistent population of this entity vs. the other categories.

4. Familiars (i.e., cats) exhibited recurring elevated October activity, but with high variability: familiars had consistently higher activity in October as compared to other months, but there was high variability year over year.

Taken together, these observations provide preliminary support for the existence of multiple supernatural populations. However, one category behaved differently.

3.2 The anomalous decline in witch-associated activity

Witch-associated activity exhibited a marked departure from the broader supernatural trend. Following periods of elevated October activity earlier in the observation window, the witch category experienced a substantial decline in 2021, registering approximately 68% below its non-October monthly baseline. Additionally, activity levels were 20% lower in October than the rest of the year in 2023.

[Figure 2: The Witchcraft Anomaly, 2016-2025]

October witch-associated activity relative to the annual non-October baseline.

The magnitude of the 2021 decline was particularly notable when compared to the near or above zero percentages for every other supernatural entity.

Although October represents only one month of the annual observation, its established association with supernatural activity makes it a useful indicator of broader supernatural existence year over year. The observed decline therefore raises the question of whether there was a systemic disruption to witchcraft activity extending beyond Halloween itself.

3.3 Preliminary evidence of recovery

Witch-associated October activity has been consistently above average in 2024 and 2025, suggesting that the disruption may have been temporary. The timing prompted further investigation into economic and environmental conditions preceding and accompanying the decline.

3.4 Correlation of witch activity decline with supply chain issues

Further investigation identified a strong correlation between global supply disruptions beginning in 2021 and the decline in witch activity.

In 2021, severe drought and the extreme heat substantially reduced Canadian mustard seed production. According to Statistics Canada, production totaled just 60,532 tonnes in 2021, with yields reaching their lowest level since 1961. Canada’s importance to the international mustard markets meant that the resulting disruption extended well beyond North America. In 2022, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine further constrained alternative supplies, contributing to shortages and price increases across European mustard markets.

Additionally, in 2021 and 2022, global supply chain disruptions created substantial shortages of glass bottles and containers. Manufacturers across numerous industries reported increased prices, extended procurement timelines, and difficulties sourcing appropriate packaging.

Finally, a third disruption affected paraffin wax, a common material in candle production. Supply constraints and rising raw material costs contributed to significant wax price increases during 2021 and 2022. By 2022, certain petroleum wax prices were more than 50% above 2019 levels.

4. Discussion

4.1 The global witchcraft supply chain hypothesis

The temporal alignment between the global supply chain disruptions and the observed decline in witchy behavior raises the possibility that the witchcraft industry experienced a previously unrecognized supply chain crisis. Several affected commodities have longstanding associations with traditional witchcraft practices, including potion preparation, ritual activities, and supernatural divination.

4.2 Mustard seed and the eye of newt shortage

The relevance of the mustard seed shortages to witchcraft is significant. In Shakespeare's Macbeth, the witches famously include "eye of newt" among the ingredients in their cauldron. Some modern interpretations associate the ingredient with mustard seed, although the historical basis for this identification remains disputed. Given the apparent importance of eye of newt to potion preparation, the disruption of global mustard supplies represents a potentially significant constraint on witchcraft production.

The potential consequences of a mustard seed shortage for potion manufacturing warrant consideration. A sudden reduction in the availability of a foundational ingredient could plausibly impair potion production at scale.

4.3 Glass shortages and potion storage constraints

Ingredient availability was not the only challenge. The impact of the glass bottle shortages may have been considerable.

Even where potion ingredients remained available, limited access to glass containers could have constrained storage, transportation, and distribution. The simultaneous disruption of product inputs and finished-product packaging suggests the possibility of a compounding operational crisis.

4.4 Paraffin wax and ritual continuity

Given the established role of candles in ceremonial and ritual practices, the shortages in parrafin wax introduce an additional possible constraint on witchcraft activity. Even witches able to secure ingredients and storage containers may have encountered difficulties conducting essential rituals.

4.5 A systemic operational crisis

Taken together, the disruptions to three critical witchcraft material supply chains affected several potentially interdependent components of witchcraft operations.

Table 1. Potential operational consequences of global supply disruptions

The simultaneous occurrence of these disruptions suggests that witchcraft may be considerably more dependent on conventional industrial infrastructure and global supply chains than previously recognized.

4.6 Differential resilience across supernatural populations

The relative stability of other supernatural populations provides an important comparative observation.

Ghosts, which are generally understood to lack physical form, may be less dependent on agricultural commodities, manufactured containers, or conventional procurement systems. Furthermore, the consistent supply of deceased population can keep the ghost population sustained without impact from global supply chain.

Werewolves, whose activity is traditionally associated with lunar cycles, may similarly have limited exposure to international supply chains. Their pack-based social structures may also provide a degree of collective resilience during periods of economic disruption, although the extent of resource sharing within werewolf populations remains poorly understood.

Vampires appear to have maintained relatively consistent activity despite broader economy disruption, suggesting a potentially more resilient operational model (i.e., the ever-present source of human blood).

Familiars (i.e., cats) present a particularly interesting case. Despite their longstanding association with witches, cat-associated activity remained comparatively robust during the period of witchcraft disruption, and had the widest variability year over year. This raises the possibility that familiars possess greater operational independence than previously assumed. On the other hand, it has long been understood that cats do what they want, so we must consider that we may simply be observing this fact in our data.

Further research into the economic and organizational relationship between witches and their feline counterparts may prove valuable.

4.7 Evidence of industry recovery

The return of positive witch-associated October activity in 2024 and 2025 broadly coincides with the stabilization of the critical supply chains witchcraft is dependent on.

This temporal relationship is consistent with the hypothesis that improved commodity availability contributed to the restoration of witchcraft operations. However, the relative contributions of inventory replenishment, alternative sourcing, and possible changes in ritual practice remain unknown.

4.8. Study Limitations

Several limitations should be considered when interpreting these findings.

First, the study relies on indirect observational indicators rather than confirmed supernatural encounters. The use of healthcare data as a proxy for supernatural activity is novel, and has not been independently validated.

Second, October prevalence relative to other months does not directly measure the total size or annual activity of the measured supernatural populations.

Third, the study does not establish causation between commodity shortages and changes to witch-associated activity.

Fourth, the precise quantities of mustard seed, glass containers, and paraffin wax required for routine witchcraft operations remain poorly characterized.

Finally, the degree to which ghosts, vampires, werewolves, and familiars (i.e., cats) participate in conventional economic systems is not currently understood.

These limitations warrant further interdisciplinary investigation.

5. Conclusions and Future Directions

This study provides a novel longitudinal examination of potential supernatural activity using healthcare data.

The findings reveal recurring October signals associated with ghosts, vampires, werewolves, witches and familiars (i.e., cats), offering preliminary observational support for a diverse and persistent supernatural ecosystem.

Most significantly, we identified an anomalous decline in witch-associated activity beginning in 2021, coinciding with widespread disruptions in agricultural commodities, glass manufacturing, and candle production. The subsequent recovery in witch-associated activity suggests that the disruption may have been temporary, although its precise causes remain uncertain.

Further research should examine the relationship between supernatural populations and conventional economic infrastructure, including the possibility of supply chain dependencies previously overlooked by the scientific community.

References

1. American Academy of Professional Coders (AAPC). Spooky ICD-10 Codes to Look Out for on Halloween. Research inspiration.

2. Statistics Canada. World to Canada: Pass the mustard. 2023.

3. The Guardian. French Dijon mustard supply hit by climate and rising costs, say producers. 2022.

4. The Herb Society of America. The Witch's Herb Garden. 2017.

5. Inc. Why Glass Is So Hard to Find Right Now—and How to Deal With the Shortage. 2021.

6. CBS News. Supply Chain Issues Creating Glass Bottle Shortage, Higher Prices. 2021.

7. Society of Tribologists and Lubrication Engineers. Wax Prices Are Going Through the Roof. 2024.

Research note: This article is a satirical exploration of fictional supernatural phenomena using real-world, de-identified healthcare data and documented economic events. The selected healthcare indicators represent legitimate medical circumstances and do not establish the existence of supernatural entities. The proposed causal relationships are fictional.